Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

DOI

10.2991/iccia.2012.345How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Extreme Value Theory, Extreme Rainfall, Return Level, Typhoon Morakot

Abstract

In this study, the annual maximum daily rainfall from 1911 to 2010 are modeled for 6 stations in Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Hengchun, Hualien, and Taitung. We fit the rainfall data both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and further estimated future patterns based on the best fitted model. The non-stationary model used the location and scale parameter in the GEV distribution as a function of time to detect the temporal trend of the maximum rainfall. The results suggest that non-stationary GEV and Gumbel distribution provide best fit for Haulien and Taitung, respectively. The return levels of the stationary models for 4 stations and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) are provided. In addition, the return period of Typhoon Morakotis also calculated based on stationary models in this study.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Michael McAleer
AU  - Lanfen Chu
PY  - 2014/05
DA  - 2014/05
TI  - Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
BT  - Proceedings of the 2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Information Application (ICCIA 2012)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1389
EP  - 1392
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345
DO  - 10.2991/iccia.2012.345
ID  - McAleer2014/05
ER  -