Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Science and Technology on Social Science 2022 (iCAST-SS 2022)

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A Heuristic Network for Electricity Demand Projection

Authors
Mulyanto1, Bedi Suprapty1, *, Rheo Malani1, Arief Bramanto Wicaksono Putra1, Emmilya Umma Aziza Gaffar2
1The Applied Modern Computing and Robotic Systems Unit, Politeknik Negeri Samarinda, Samarinda, Indonesia
2Department of Economic Study, Universitas Mulawarman, Samarinda, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: bedirheody@gmail.com
Corresponding Author
Bedi Suprapty
Available Online 30 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117How to use a DOI?
Keywords
total electricity demand; MISO-ARX; Heuristic Network; OEI projection
Abstract

Indonesia’s electricity demand in 2025 has been projected by the 2016 Indonesia Energy Outlook (OEI) of 513 TWh based on data obtained during the 2000–2015 period. This study tries to project the total electricity demand during 2016–2025 based on data on nominal GRDP growth, population, electricity sales in the household, commercial and industrial sectors, and electrification ratio. All data obtained in the form of time series data were modeled using MISO-ARX (Multi-Input Single Output Auto Regressive with Exogenous Input). This model is then represented using a Heuristic Network. After the training process, this network is used to predict the growth of total electricity sales in 2016–2025 based on growth data from 2001–2015. The prediction results are used to project electricity demand in 2016–2025. The comparison of the projection results using the Heuristic Network with the results of the OEI-2016 project is MAPE = 4.46%. With this relatively small MAPE, the projection results using the Heuristic Network can be considered fairly close to the results of the OEI-2016 projection

Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Science and Technology on Social Science 2022 (iCAST-SS 2022)
Series
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research
Publication Date
30 December 2022
ISBN
978-2-494069-83-1
ISSN
2352-5398
DOI
10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Mulyanto
AU  - Bedi Suprapty
AU  - Rheo Malani
AU  - Arief Bramanto Wicaksono Putra
AU  - Emmilya Umma Aziza Gaffar
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/30
TI  - A Heuristic Network for Electricity Demand Projection
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Science and Technology on Social Science 2022 (iCAST-SS 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 674
EP  - 680
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117
DO  - 10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117
ID  - 2022
ER  -