A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast

DOI

10.2991/icacsei.2013.97How to use a DOI?

Keywords

consumption forecast, time series, seasonal effect, ARIMA model

Abstract

The forecast of electricity consumption has a siginificant impact on both economics and society. Various models have been developed to make this forecast accurate. Among them is the highly successful ARIMA model which is based on time series analysis. However, when applied local in China, ARIMA forecast is not as accurate as expected, due to the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year feastive period. This paper proposes a revised ARIMA model which adjusts its forecast by the use of a China New Year (CNY) coefficient. Preliminary experimental results on real data show that this revised model outperforms the traditional one.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Tiao Cai
AU  - Xin Wang
AU  - Sui Huang
PY  - 2013/08
DA  - 2013/08
TI  - A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast
BT  - Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 385
EP  - 387
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97
DO  - 10.2991/icacsei.2013.97
ID  - Cai2013/08
ER  -