Spatial-Temporary Analysis of Climate Changing on Five Headwater Rivers in the Tibetan Plateauthrough the Output of GCMS

DOI

10.2991/icache-15.2015.45How to use a DOI?

Keywords

spatial similarity, GCMs, climate change, Delta-DCSI, temperature, precipitation

Abstract

The assessment of climate change due to global warming is a worldwide public concern. The impact of climate change on water resources is worth exploring for understanding the interaction between the climate and water resources and for decision-making in water resources management. In this study, a new downscaling method Delta-DCSI was introduced for downscale grids data to station fully taking into account of elements spatial variability by interpolation method of dualistic cubic surface. Then the spatial-temporary variability of GCMs’ output precipitation and air temperature in this area were analyzed compared with the observed dataset during the period of 1961-1990 through similarity coefficients (i.e., Euclidean distance, Pearson correlation) and trend surface method before doing a adjusted for the chosen models. After being adjusted, the performance of MRCGCM and NCPCM in spatiotemporal simulation of air temperature and precipitation were outstanding. The forecasting period of 2001-2099 was divided into three sections, the changing trend of air temperature and precipitation in each River region during the three periods has being illustrated respectively. The results show that the air temperature in the future will have a long-term warmer trend, especially in the source region of Yangtze River, while the precipitation in this area will increase, particularly in the source region of Yellow River and Brahmaputra. It is interesting that the precipitation in the source regions of Yellow River, Yangtze River and Brahmaputra will increase as the increment of air temperature while the precipitation in the other two regions show none significant correlation with air temperature.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xi Chen
AU  - Zhenchun Hao
AU  - Qin Ju
AU  - Minglong Dai
AU  - Changjiang Xu
PY  - 2015/11
DA  - 2015/11
TI  - Spatial-Temporary Analysis of Climate Changing on Five Headwater Rivers in the Tibetan Plateauthrough the Output of GCMS
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Architectural, Civil and Hydraulics Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 220
EP  - 230
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icache-15.2015.45
DO  - 10.2991/icache-15.2015.45
ID  - Chen2015/11
ER  -