Development of a Residential Space-Heating Demand Prediction Method under Uncertainly

DOI

10.2991/gmee-15.2015.45How to use a DOI?

Keywords

heat demand prediction; uncertainty; heating system; fuzzy set

Abstract

in this paper, a prediction method was advanced for residential space heating demand under the fuzz environment. This developed method improved the traditional heat load duration curve method via the quantification expression technique for the fuzzy heating durations. The results indicate that the higher the system possibility is, the narrower the interval of the heat demand prediction result becomes, in which the decision maker can adjust the practical heat provisions of the heat sources. Besides, the opposite heat provision variation trend of the main heat source and peak-shaving heat source can be obtained with the rising thermalization coefficient. Compared with the traditional heat load duration curve method, it is helpful for the relative multi-heat-source centralized heating system managers by providing a potential tradeoff analysis between the system possibility and the selectable heat provision ranges of different heat sources.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Dianzheng Fu
AU  - Zeyu Zheng
AU  - Yiming Tong
AU  - Yang Fu
PY  - 2015/12
DA  - 2015/12
TI  - Development of a Residential Space-Heating Demand Prediction Method under Uncertainly
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Green Materials and Environmental Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 170
EP  - 173
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/gmee-15.2015.45
DO  - 10.2991/gmee-15.2015.45
ID  - Fu2015/12
ER  -