Simulation Model of The Demographic Situation of The Volga Federal District

DOI

10.2991/febm-18.2018.57How to use a DOI?

Keywords

System dynamics; Simulation modeling; Forecasting; Demography; Vensim

Abstract

The demographic development of a region is the basis for the formation of labor resources. This study describes an algorithm for developing a simulation model of a region's labor potential. The article shows the analysis and socio-economic factors affecting the demographic condition of the Volga Federal District. The modeling of the main demographic processes was carried out with the inclusion of multiplicative correction factors. The model is implemented in the Vensim software based on flow diagrams and differential equations of system dynamics. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data. With the help of the model, a forecast of demographic determinants up to 2022 was created.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - T.G. Barkalova
AU  - E. I. Tsaregorodtsev
PY  - 2018/12
DA  - 2018/12
TI  - Simulation Model of The Demographic Situation of The Volga Federal District
BT  - Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 250
EP  - 253
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/febm-18.2018.57
DO  - 10.2991/febm-18.2018.57
ID  - Barkalova2018/12
ER  -