Comparison of Grey Prediction with Age Shift Equation Used in Population Forecast

DOI

10.2991/emcs-17.2017.29How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Grey prediction; Age shift equation; Population forecast; Comparison

Abstract

Population is big national power. It helps the government making macro-economic decision if the population dynamic change trend is hold. It is necessary to predict population. Age shift equation is one of the population prediction methods. Also, grey model is used by some scholars to predict population. These two methods are used to forecast the future ten-year population in Chengdu, Sichuan province, China based on the same data. The comparison is made from the prediction results to the prediction method. The conclusion was found that the result made by grey prediction is little higher than age shift equation's. The influence of the fertility policy adjustment and mechanical change of population can be mixed together in grey prediction. But this method cannot analysis deeply on the changes in women of childbearing age and the fertility rate change of policy factors. The influence on fertility rate from the fertility policy adjustment can be mixed together in the forecast made by age shift equation. But some data is acquired difficultly.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yonghong Zou
AU  - Jiatao Huang
PY  - 2017/03
DA  - 2017/03
TI  - Comparison of Grey Prediction with Age Shift Equation Used in Population Forecast
BT  - Proceedings of the 2017 7th International Conference on Education, Management, Computer and Society (EMCS 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 151
EP  - 155
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/emcs-17.2017.29
DO  - 10.2991/emcs-17.2017.29
ID  - Zou2017/03
ER  -