Risk Assessment of Land Reclamation Investment Projects

DOI

10.2991/csis-18.2019.45How to use a DOI?

Keywords

risk assessment; analysis methods; investment project

Abstract

The specific investment projects and the use of effective innovative methods of effectiveness calculation of the planned activities are important factors in profitable capital investment. The authors prove the need of studying the effectiveness assess of investments in land development using a common economic theory. It aims to speed up the formation of the methodical directions of accounting risks meeting the reclamation practices requirements. The purpose of the study is to improve the theory of assessment effectiveness of reclamation activities on the basis of synthesis, analysis and development of the effectiveness output of specific investment projects considering the risks. The analysis of the economic efficiency of the LRIP is based on the investment activities of the federal target program "Land reclamation development of agricultural land in Russia for 2014-2020." The investment usefulness in the federal target program activities of land development considering risk assessment was realized by methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis: sensitivity and scenario analysis. In the process of qualitative analysis significant risk factors are: an increase in investment costs, in discounting rate, a change in operating costs and purchasing of prices for agricultural products. It is shown that the pure present project value is the most dependent on discount rate. It is due to the exponential dependence of the future value of money from this parameter. The risk level of program implementation calculated by scenario analysis is 13.5%. This demonstrates investment feasibility in its implementation. The need for normative and methodological improvement of the current tools risk evaluations is demonstrated. It is based on the automated assessment of LRIP risks by the method of Monte Carlo.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Irina Yurchenko
AU  - Vladimir Vanzha
AU  - Mikhail Bandurin
AU  - Victor Volosukhin
AU  - Inna Bandurinа
PY  - 2019/02
DA  - 2019/02
TI  - Risk Assessment of Land Reclamation Investment Projects
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference Communicative Strategies of Information Society (CSIS 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 216
EP  - 221
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/csis-18.2019.45
DO  - 10.2991/csis-18.2019.45
ID  - Yurchenko2019/02
ER  -