A Simulation Model for Predicting the Development of Cut Lily Based on Photo-Thermal Index

DOI

10.2991/ceis-16.2016.1How to use a DOI?

Keywords

cut lily; development stages; model; phenophase days; photo-thermal index

Abstract

In order to provide accurate prediction of the development stages of cut lily, which is crucial for decision-making of the market schedule, a simulation model based on photo-thermal index (PTI) was developed to estimate the phenophase days during greenhouse production. Three experiments of Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv. 'Sorbonne' with different planting date were conducted in a PC multi-span greenhouse in Nanjing from March 2009 to January 2010 for data collection used in model construction and validation. The results showed the relative prediction error (rRMSE) between the observed days and the simulated days for each development stage were 1.58d, 2.23d, 2.54d, 1.58d, respectively. The coefficient of determination (r2) between the predicted and the measured phenophase days were 0.97 with the error remained in 3 days, which is more accurate than growing degree day (GDD) based model. The model developed in this study gave satisfactory predictions of phenophase days, hence, can be used for florescence regulation in Sorbonne production.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yong-Yi Dong
AU  - Dong-Sheng An
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - A Simulation Model for Predicting the Development of Cut Lily Based on Photo-Thermal Index
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Computer Engineering and Information Systems
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1
EP  - 4
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ceis-16.2016.1
DO  - 10.2991/ceis-16.2016.1
ID  - Dong2016/11
ER  -