An Improved GM (1,1) Model on Initial Value and Its Application on Power Load Forecasting

DOI

10.2991/asei-15.2015.402How to use a DOI?

Keywords

GM (1,1) model; Power load forecasting; residual sum of squares;Initial value.

Abstract

When Calculating the parameter c of differential equations,traditional GM(1,1) model considers only the of 1-AGO,the oldest history data ,resulting loss of new information to some extent.This paper gives a new way to calculate the initial value.The new model firstly establishes the function of residual sum of squares.Then it solves the equation and gives expression of parameter c. Finally,it uses the new ‘c’ and obtains the new formula of Predictive value.Through the example analysis,this paper proves that improved prediction model can improve prediction precision.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Shuangchen Li
AU  - Tiantian Wang
PY  - 2015/05
DA  - 2015/05
TI  - An Improved GM (1,1) Model on Initial Value and Its Application on Power Load Forecasting
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International conference on Applied Science and Engineering Innovation
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 2044
EP  - 2049
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/asei-15.2015.402
DO  - 10.2991/asei-15.2015.402
ID  - Li2015/05
ER  -