Threat and error management in terms of coordination between crew and ATC team based on Bayesian method

DOI

10.2991/aeecs-18.2018.49How to use a DOI?

Keywords

TEM model, Coordination Between Crew and ATC, Bayesian Evaluation, Correlation.

Abstract

A new TEM model is proposed on the basis of coordination between crew and ATC team and an analysis of the sample data about threat, error and undesired state is conducted by using Bayesian model. The analysis obtains the correlations of the three kinds of safety information above through studying the respective posterior probabilities of threats and errors under unexpected state. Investigation on 785 sample data shows that the three kinds of threats most correlated to unexpected state are controllers' error to pilots, pilots' error to controllers, and air traffic flow threat; and that the three kinds of errors most correlated to unexpected state are controllers' error of speaking and listening, releasing the mistake order by controllers' wrong decision, and pilots' error operation of A/C. Therefore, the safety control departments of airlines and ATC units should lay their emphasis on human error, especially on the communication errors between crew and ATC team.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaolong Zhu
AU  - Haitian Zhang
AU  - Zhiqin Huo
PY  - 2018/03
DA  - 2018/03
TI  - Threat and error management in terms of coordination between crew and ATC team based on Bayesian method
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy, Environment and Chemical Science (AEECS 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 292
EP  - 299
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aeecs-18.2018.49
DO  - 10.2991/aeecs-18.2018.49
ID  - Zhu2018/03
ER  -