Volume 8, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 192 - 198
A Study of Seismic Macroeconomic Losses Based on Monte Carlo Method—Take Tangshan City as an Example
Authors
Qing Wu, Mengtan Gao
Corresponding Author
Qing Wu
Received 26 October 2018, Accepted 10 November 2018, Available Online 31 December 2018.
- DOI
- 10.2991/jrarc.2018.8.4.3How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- Monte Carlo method, macroeconomic vulnerability model, exceeding probability curve
- Abstract
The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate seismic sequences. For each earthquake in the sequence, the ground motion parameters of each site are calculated by the attenuation relationship, which is introduced into the vulnerability of the macroeconomic with GDP loss as an indicator. The model gives the exceeding probability curve of macroeconomic losses. This method provides a straightforward way to estimate the level of economic loss of a city in future earthquakes. It is of great importance to decision-making reference for formulating the corresponding earthquake prevention and mitigation countermeasures at present stage, and also provides a reference for insurance companies to determine the rates.
- Copyright
- © 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - JOUR AU - Qing Wu AU - Mengtan Gao PY - 2018 DA - 2018/12/31 TI - A Study of Seismic Macroeconomic Losses Based on Monte Carlo Method—Take Tangshan City as an Example JO - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response SP - 192 EP - 198 VL - 8 IS - 4 SN - 2210-8505 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jrarc.2018.8.4.3 DO - 10.2991/jrarc.2018.8.4.3 ID - Wu2018 ER -