Population Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality in 93 Countries

Authors

Muhammad Jawad Hashim^1, , Ahmed R. Alsuwaidi², Gulfaraz Khan^{3, *,}

¹Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences (Tawam Hospital Campus), United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates

²Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine and Health Sciences (Tawam Hospital Campus), United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates

³Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences (Tawam Hospital Campus), United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates

^*Corresponding author. Email: g_khan@uaeu.ac.ae

DOI

10.2991/jegh.k.200721.001How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Novel coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; epidemiology; risk factors

Abstract

Death rates due to COVID-19 pandemic vary considerably across regions and countries. Case Mortality Rates (CMR) per 100,000 population are more reliable than case-fatality rates per 100 test-positive cases, which are heavily dependent on the extent of viral case testing carried out in a country. We aimed to study the variations in CMR against population risk factors such as aging, underlying chronic diseases and social determinants such as poverty and overcrowding. Data on COVID-19 CMR in 93 countries was analyzed for associations with preexisting prevalence rates of eight diseases [asthma, lung cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), hypertension, ischemic heart disease, depression and diabetes], and six socio-demographic factors [Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, unemployment, age over 65 years, urbanization, population density, and socio-demographic index]. These data were analyzed in three steps: correlation analysis, bivariate comparison of countries, and multivariate modelling. Bivariate analysis revealed that COVID-19 CMR were higher in countries that had high prevalence of population risk factors such as AD, lung cancer, asthma and COPD. On multivariate modeling however, AD, COPD, depression and higher GDP predicted increased death rates. Comorbid illnesses such as AD and lung diseases may be more influential than aging alone.

Copyright

© 2020 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - JOUR
AU  - Muhammad Jawad Hashim
AU  - Ahmed R. Alsuwaidi
AU  - Gulfaraz Khan
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/07/29
TI  - Population Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality in 93 Countries
JO  - Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
SP  - 204
EP  - 208
VL  - 10
IS  - 3
SN  - 2210-6014
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.200721.001
DO  - 10.2991/jegh.k.200721.001
ID  - Hashim2020
ER  -